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Korea’s Kia and Hyundai could be first to return to the Russian market should the geopolitical situation shift and sanctions ease, followed by Japan’s Toyota, Mazda and Subaru, said Sergey Tselikov, head of Avtostat, an industry analytics firm, in an interview with TASS.

He believes that such brands as Renault, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, in their turn, have exited Russia forever. In any case, “global brands won’t return to Russia” if the geopolitical situation doesn’t normalize or sanctions are not lifted at least partially.

BMW still keeps its office in Russia and unofficially supports dealers with car parts supplies and access to databases and services, Avtostat head recalled. The prospects of the brand’s comeback are directly dependent on the scope of sanctions restrictions and the dynamics of their potential lifting, he said.

Experts remain skeptical of the potential foreign car makers’ comeback: in their absence the market has changed dramatically while the companies themselves prioritize other directions and markets, Business FM notes. This year, for instance, Hyundai refused the opportunity to buy back its former factory in St Petersburg, the publication said.

Korean car brands remain interested in the Russian market, but the prospects of their return stay vague, Evgeny Semenov, head of Avtovoz, a car transport company, said. “Hyundai is unlikely to return, because there still has to be a dealership service, a car parts warehouse. I think that under current circumstances, it’s unlikely to happen in the near future. But if it does – then it follows that all the infrastructure has to be put back in place”, he reasoned.

Semenov recalled the reports of covert consultations between Toyota and Russian dealers, but as of yet all talk of the Japanese car brand is no more than a “fantasy”. “As long as sanctions are there, as long as sanctions are active, I think it’s implausible that this could materialize. It’s just speculation, so to speak, water-cooler talk”, the expert believes.

Talking about which of the automotive brands could be the first to return, which isn’t going to return in principle and in what time frame this could happen, is much like “reading tea leaves”, Evgeny Ladushkin, head of LEM solution, a consultancy, agreed.

By the end of this year Russian car brands could for the first time outperform Chinese brands in terms of new passenger-car market share. The sales of local brands could reach 43 % of the market against 41 % by Chinese manufacturers, Avtostat reckons.

Nearly 100 billion rubles has been invested to relaunch the car factories abandoned by foreign companies, Denis Manturov, the first deputy prime minister, said on 31 August. According to him, along with adding new models to the assembly line this made it possible to recreate car manufacturing in almost every segment in demand. Manturov therefore considers the task of preserving the factories, workforce and engineering expertise to have been accomplished.

In August, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the restriction of foreigner investors’ right to buy back their shares and stakes in Russian companies, including automotive brands that exited the Russian market after the military conflict in Ukraine began. According to RBC, currently four foreign car makers — Renault, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and Ford — are still holding an option to buy back their Russian assets.