AmCham has assessed the prospects for Western companies returning to Russia
Approximately 150 “purely American” companies continue to operate in Russia, roughly the same number have left, and about 50 former American companies have been transferred to Russian ownership. These estimates were provided in a March interview with RBC by Robert Agee, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia (AmCham Russia) since 2021.
The remaining Western companies are operating in difficult conditions: US sanctions prohibit them from making new investments in Russia, and there are difficulties with payments and logistics, Agee said. However, if the geopolitical situation stabilises, 4-5 companies (presumably from the FMCG, “fast-moving consumer goods” sector) could return to Russia as early as this year – provided that “they can find a place in the market”, Agee predicted.
According to him, among the Western companies that have left the Russian market, some will find it easier to return. Firstly, these are businesses that have buyback options and an FCMG product portfolio: Agee estimates that these account for 10% to 20% of the total number of companies that have left. Their buyback options for Russian assets are valid until 2027-2028, the head of AmCham Russia indicated.
Secondly, these are companies that “left but did not leave”. This includes enterprises that have retained licences, left offices or even production sites in Russia, and continue to pay the salaries of their factory workers, Agee said. “For them, coming back and starting work is much easier than for companies that have completely left", he emphasised.
The Russian Ministry of Finance has not yet received any applications from foreign businesses wishing to return, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov reported on 2 April. “There are no specific applications on this topic”, he stated. Regarding deals for the exit of foreigners from Russia, they are continuing, but the number of applications for exit to the relevant subcommittee has decreased, the Deputy Minister indicated.
Discussions about the possible return of American business to Russia began after the presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, spoke by telephone on 12 February, and then consultations between delegations of the two countries aimed at resolving the military conflict in Ukraine began in Saudi Arabia. Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin instructed the government to develop a procedure for approving the return of foreign companies to Russia. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on March 26th that a “special commission” would make individual “decisions” for each such company. In particular, foreign firms that left “under pressure from governments” but retained “jobs, contacts, and technologies” in Russia will be able to return, the head of government clarified.