The American media has published a draft plan prepared by the administration of US President Donald Trump to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Its translation into Russian is available in an RBC publication (in Russian).
The plan consists of 28 points and envisions, in particular, that:
Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, the plan says. The lifting of sanctions "will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis." In addition, the US and Russia may conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the fields of energy, natural resources, infrastructure and certain technology areas. Under the plan, Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.
On 22 November, European leaders said that Trump's plan could serve as a basis for a settlement, but will require additional work. According to Germany's Bild newspaper, Europeans disagree with the Trump administration's proposal that Crimea, the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) be recognised as de facto Russian, and that the borders in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions be frozen along the line of contact.
According to Bild, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also unhappy with Trump's plans regarding Russia's frozen sovereign assets. Some Western media outlets interpret the plans as "returning two-thirds of the frozen reserves to Moscow." The plan states that $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. Russia's European assets will be unfrozen. It is assumed that at least part of them will be invested in a separate US-Russian instrument for implementing joint projects in areas to be determined later.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the 28-point plan, which was "modernised" after the Russian-US summit in Alaska, could form the basis for a final peace settlement. However, Putin pointed out that "the US administration has not yet managed to secure the agreement of the Ukrainian side."
On Sunday, 23 November, talks between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan began in Switzerland, with representatives from Europe also taking part. On the evening of 23 November, The Telegraph newspaper published the European version of the peace plan. Its main differences from the US plan are that:
This plan, like the US one, provides for Western sanctions against Russia to be gradually and partially eased once a stable peace is achieved.
At the same time, Reuters presented another version of the plan, prepared by the United Kingdom, France and Germany. This document is closer to the US one, but it proposes limiting the size of the Ukrainian army in peacetime to 800,000 personnel (the US plan proposes 600,000). This version retains the condition that Russian sovereign assets remain frozen until the damage to Ukraine is compensated.
Is it possible for foreign businesses to return?
If a peace settlement is reached based on the US-proposed terms (including Russia's declared reintegration into the global economy), foreign direct investment may begin to flow into Russia, Sergey Konygin, senior economist at Sinara Investment Bank, told RBC. "If the sanctions are lifted or at least eased, we believe that the rouble has every chance of gaining strength with the incoming surge of foreign direct investment, which would be facilitated by the restored access to external capital markets and the return of lost [foreign] business," he said.
However, a number of other experts doubt that the plan can be easily implemented. "We need to keep the picture in our heads that many of the previously imposed Western sanctions will be rapidly lifted. . . Although we currently rate the probability of this picture quite low — no more than 10%," Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam, told RBC. "We already had similar precedents this year, when the situation seemed to be improving, but then the markets were disappointed. And now it's still the case that nothing is written in stone," said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank.
If agreements are reached, the sanctions will be lifted in stages, not all at the same time, which is bad news for Moscow, writes the Financial Times. In late October, the US imposed tough sanctions on the Russian oil sector, adding Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's largest oil exporters, to the SDN blacklist, which was the Trump administration's first announcement of sanctions on the Russian economy since January 2025. Under the circumstances, Russian oil prices fell below $40 per barrel. The European Union has already imposed 19 packages of sanctions against Russia since February 2022, but the US and EU sanctions are not totally coordinated, particularly the sanctions lists and sectoral measures.
Robert Agee, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, said in spring that it is in the interests of American businesses, among others, to first have the sanctions on aircraft parts supply to Russia and aircraft maintenance lifted. In addition, he pointed out that there can be no full-fledged return of US businesses to Russia until the current ban on new investments in Russia is revoked. Agee also called for sanctions to be lifted on Russian banks in order to solve the problem of cross-border payments.
Meanwhile, Russian authorities and major businesses held discussions throughout 2025 on the conditions for foreign companies to return, agreeing that the interests of Russian businesses that invested in adapting and developing companies after the foreign stakeholders left must be accommodated. In those cases where Western businesses are allowed to return, conditions will need to be imposed on them regarding things such as technology transfer, a certain level of investment, guarantees there will be no repeat of the uncontrolled withdrawal in 2022, and so forth.
In late October, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Denis Tyupyshev said that sectoral criteria for the return of foreign companies would take into account whether assets had been sold or transferred to a Russian legal entity for interim management, whether jobs and workforces had been retained, and whether any debts were outstanding, including taxes and wages. Consideration will also be given as to "whether any financial, material, technical, advisory, or other assistance was provided to a foreign state, international or foreign organisation, or their representatives in activities directed against Russia's security, at violating its territorial integrity, at discrediting Russia, or other hostile actions." A further important criterion will be that no efforts were made to prevent the building of new logistics chains for the supply of finished goods or components essential to production in Russia.